Mosaic Co (MOS) stock analysis
Mosaic Co (MOS) clears 2 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $17.27 it trades 14.5% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +14.5%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +4.5% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Mosaic do?
Mosaic Company mines and sells phosphate and potash, two crop nutrients that farmers use to grow food.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Mosaic
- MicroEssentials
What stands out about Mosaic?
- The share price implies 4.1% yearly growth. At $17.27, MOS's free cash flow of $1.18 per share would have to grow 4.1% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($5.5B); the other 2 pass and 5 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Close to its 52-week low. At $17.27, MOS is 0.5% above its low of $17.19 and 44.9% below its high of $31.36. See the range.
- Weakest against peers: net margin. At −5.2% (peer median 7.8%) it ranks 16th of 16 among materials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 9.5% of the float is sold short, 3.8 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Mosaic's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Mosaic undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +14.5%
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.44/5 25 analysts this month: 2 strong buy, 9 buy, 12 hold, 2 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 3.47 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.64 · accruals −1.2% of assets · 241% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −2.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +4.5% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 5.1% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.6%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 11 years its split-adjusted share count fell 15%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $9.25 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 6% return on capital Operating profit $571M → $927M, capital needed $13B → $16B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 6% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (no PEG reported)
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.6×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (no PEG reported). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 15 other materials stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Mosaic compare with its peers?
4 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 15 other materials stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.3% 6.9% –6th of 16
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 13% −5% ✕15th of 16
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.8% −5.2% ✕16th of 16
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.2% 8.8% –6th of 16
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.51 –8th of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 5.09% ✓2nd of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and MOS doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: MOS and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: MOS isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and MOS falls short of his bar. In its favor: MOS isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, and is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: MOS fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, and is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth.
- PEG < 1 n/a
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 27 n/a
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Mosaic pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $5.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 n/a
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 n/a
- Price/Book < 8 0.48
- Price/Sales < 7 0.45
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Mosaic's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Mosaic in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Mosaic?
29,994,221 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Mosaic? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +49%
- Short interest under 5% of float 9.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +0% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.40 → 0.35
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Mosaic shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from MOS's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Mosaic's 10-year financials show?
From MOS's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Mosaic
What kind of company is Mosaic?
Mosaic Company mines and sells phosphate and potash, two crop nutrients that farmers use to grow food. Brands and businesses it owns include Mosaic and MicroEssentials. This site groups it with Chemicals stocks.
Is Mosaic trading above or below its DCF value?
At $17.27, MOS trades 14.5% below this site's neutral DCF value of $20.20 per share, a margin of safety of +14.5%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Mosaic pass?
MOS passes 2 of 8. It passes Price/Book < 8 (0.48) and Price/Sales < 7 (0.45). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($5.5B). Trailing P/E < 25, PEG Ratio < 1.5, EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Mosaic return to shareholders?
MOS's net shareholder yield is +4.5%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 5.1% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.6%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 11 years its split-adjusted share count fell 15%. Its trailing dividend yield is 5.09%, paid out of 75% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (weak interest coverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Where is Mosaic trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $17.27, MOS trades 0.0% above its 52-week low of $17.19 and 44.9% below its 52-week high of $31.36. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
When does Mosaic report earnings next?
Mosaic's next earnings report is expected on November 3, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.03 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 2 times, by an average of −31.2%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Mosaic's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 27, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Mosaic Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Mosaic Co (MOS) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.