CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) stock analysis
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 7 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $118.56 it trades 45.7% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +45.7%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +9.3% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does CF Industries Holdings do?
CF Industries makes nitrogen fertilizer products from natural gas, mostly for farmers in North America, and is expanding into low-carbon ammonia.
What stands out about CF Industries Holdings?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $118.56, CF's free cash flow of $12.78 per share would have to shrink 6.8% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($17.7B); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: P/E ratio. At 8.4× (peer median 31.4×) it ranks 1st of 12 among materials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 6.6% of the float is sold short, 3.8 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
- Returns 9.3% of its value to owners a year. Dividends plus buybacks, minus the stock issued to staff, as a share of market value. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
How has CF Industries Holdings' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is CF Industries Holdings undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +45.7%
- P/E vs. its own history 8.4x · the middle Real range: 4.4x–12.1x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.48/5 31 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 8 buy, 15 hold, 3 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 3.43 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 3.52 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.67 · accruals −6.9% of assets · 152% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.6% of revenue · share count −8.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +9.3% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.8% + buybacks 7.7% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 43%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) None needed · capital fell while profit grew · but only 18% return on capital Operating profit $379M → $2.1B, capital needed $13B → $12B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 18% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (falling or negative earnings)
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 18% return on capital); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (falling or negative earnings). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 6 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 15 other materials stocks this site tracks: 5 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does CF Industries Holdings compare with its peers?
6 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 15 other materials stocks tracked here, 5 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 31.4× 8.4× ✓1st of 12
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.3% 10.8% ✓2nd of 16
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 13% 40% ✓2nd of 16
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.8% 27.1% ✓2nd of 16
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.2% 20.0% ✓3rd of 16
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.56 –9th of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 1.77% –8th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CF clears it. In its favor: CF is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: CF carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CF falls short of his bar. In its favor: CF isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: CF doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does CF Industries Holdings pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $17.7B
- Trailing P/E < 25 8.44
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 -0.72
- Price/Book < 8 3.08
- Price/Sales < 7 2.29
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +99.6%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is CF Industries Holdings' margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is CF Industries Holdings in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in CF Industries Holdings?
9,980,702 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with CF Industries Holdings? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +68%
- Short interest under 5% of float 6.6%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +56% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.73 → 0.67
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have CF Industries Holdings shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CF's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do CF Industries Holdings' 10-year financials show?
From CF's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about CF Industries Holdings
What kind of company is CF Industries Holdings?
CF Industries makes nitrogen fertilizer products from natural gas, mostly for farmers in North America, and is expanding into low-carbon ammonia. This site groups it with Chemicals stocks.
Is CF Industries Holdings trading above or below its DCF value?
At $118.56, CF trades 45.7% below this site's neutral DCF value of $218.27 per share, a margin of safety of +45.7%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does CF Industries Holdings pass?
CF passes 5 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (8.44), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (-0.72), Price/Book < 8 (3.08), Price/Sales < 7 (2.29) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+99.6%). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($17.7B). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is CF Industries Holdings' share price pricing in?
At $118.56, CF's free cash flow of $12.78 per share would have to shrink 6.8% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
When does CF Industries Holdings report earnings next?
CF Industries Holdings's next earnings report is expected on November 4, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.02 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +3.4%.
How heavily is CF Industries Holdings stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 6.6% of CF's float was sold short (9,980,702 shares, 3.8 days to cover), up 2.1% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: CF Industries Holdings's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 25, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this CF Industries Holdings Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.