Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) stock analysis
Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $143.00 it trades 130.1% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -130.1%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +7.8% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Johnson Controls do?
Johnson Controls makes and services building systems: HVAC equipment, fire and security systems and building automation for commercial buildings. It is incorporated in Ireland.
Brands and businesses it owns
- York
- Metasys
- Tyco
- Simplex
- Johnson Controls-Hitachi
What stands out about Johnson Controls?
- The share price implies 29.6% yearly growth. At $143.00, JCI's free cash flow of $3.64 per share would have to grow 29.6% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.80); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is rising. It went from -154% on Oct 7 to -130% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: net margin. At 17.0% (peer median 13.7%) it ranks 9th of 32 among industrials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 2.5% (peer median 4.1%) it ranks 28th of 32 among industrials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
How has Johnson Controls' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Johnson Controls undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -130.1%
- P/E vs. its own history 24.5x · the middle Real range: 19.8x–30.8x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.81/5 27 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 12 buy, 10 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · 1 watch Beneish M-score −2.43 · accruals 1.8% of assets · 87% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.6% of revenue · share count −2.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +7.8% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.1% + buybacks 6.8% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 6%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $1.6B → $1.5B, capital needed $32B → $23B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 7% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.80 · Above fair P/E 24.5× ÷ 13.6% a year of growth behind it. 205th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.9×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 1.80, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 31 other other industrials stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Johnson Controls compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 31 other industrials stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 25.8× 24.5× –14th of 32
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.1% 2.5% ✕28th of 32
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 34% 27% ✕23rd of 32
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 13.7% 17.0% ✓9th of 32
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.8% 5.1% –20th of 32
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.87 0.70 –13th of 32
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.34% 1.11% –18th of 31
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and JCI doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: JCI is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: JCI carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and JCI falls short of his bar. In its favor: JCI isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: JCI doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Johnson Controls pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $87.7B
- Trailing P/E < 25 24.49
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.80
- Price/Book < 8 6.50
- Price/Sales < 7 4.15
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +15.2%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Johnson Controls' margin of safety?
-154% on 2026-10-07 → -130% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Johnson Controls in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Johnson Controls?
9,194,563 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Johnson Controls? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -36%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +35% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.48 → 0.71
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Johnson Controls shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from JCI's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Johnson Controls' 10-year financials show?
From JCI's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Johnson Controls
What kind of company is Johnson Controls?
Johnson Controls makes and services building systems: HVAC equipment, fire and security systems and building automation for commercial buildings. It is incorporated in Ireland. Brands and businesses it owns include York, Metasys, Tyco, Simplex and Johnson Controls-Hitachi. This site groups it with Building stocks.
Is Johnson Controls trading above or below its DCF value?
At $143.00, JCI trades 130.1% above this site's neutral DCF value of $62.15 per share, a margin of safety of −130.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Johnson Controls pass?
JCI passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($87.7B), Trailing P/E < 25 (24.49), Price/Book < 8 (6.50), Price/Sales < 7 (4.15) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+15.2%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.80). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Johnson Controls' share price pricing in?
At $143.00, JCI's free cash flow of $3.64 per share would have to grow 29.6% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Are Johnson Controls's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates JCI Strong · 1 watch. Beneish M-score −2.43 · accruals 1.8% of assets · 87% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.6% of revenue · share count −2.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025). Concerns: cash conversion (on watch). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
When does Johnson Controls report earnings next?
Johnson Controls's next earnings report is expected on October 27, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.60 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +5.7%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Johnson Controls's 10-K annual report for the year ended Sep 30, 2025, filed Nov 14, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Johnson Controls International PLC analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.