Carrier Global Corp (CARR) stock analysis
Carrier Global Corp (CARR) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 3 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $56.48 it trades 44.0% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -44.0%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns +7.7% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Carrier Global do?
Carrier Global makes heating, ventilation and air-conditioning equipment, refrigeration and fire-and-security systems for buildings and cold-chain transport.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Carrier
- Bryant
- Viessmann
- Automated Logic
What stands out about Carrier Global?
- The share price implies 17.2% yearly growth. At $56.48, CARR's free cash flow of $2.30 per share would have to grow 17.2% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (38.10), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.84) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-12.2%); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: return on equity. At 9% (peer median 34%) it ranks 32nd of 32 among industrials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- P/E at the top of its own range. CARR trades at 38.1× trailing earnings; at the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years the multiple was between 9.9× and 34.0×.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.59 · accruals −2.8% of assets · 67% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count +0.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
How has Carrier Global's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Carrier Global undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -44.0%
- P/E vs. its own history 38.1x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 9.9x–34.0x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.88/5 32 analysts this month: 8 strong buy, 12 buy, 12 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.90 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 2.35 · Grey zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.59 · accruals −2.8% of assets · 67% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count +0.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +7.7% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.7% + buybacks 6.2% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 7 years its split-adjusted share count fell 0%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $3.1B → $2.3B, capital needed $14B → $21B, 2018–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 11% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 3.84 · Well above fair P/E 38.1× ÷ 9.9% a year of growth behind it. 384th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.8×, under 2×); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 3.84, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 1 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 31 other other industrials stocks this site tracks: 0 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Carrier Global compare with its peers?
1 of 7 measure sits above the median of the 31 other industrials stocks tracked here, 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 25.8× 38.1× ✕28th of 32
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.1% 4.1% –18th of 32
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 34% 9% ✕32nd of 32
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 13.7% 5.5% ✕30th of 32
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.8% −1.6% ✕31st of 32
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.87 0.91 –17th of 32
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.34% 1.68% –12th of 31
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CARR doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: CARR and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: CARR isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CARR falls short of his bar. In its favor: CARR converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: CARR doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, and is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Carrier Global pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $46.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 38.10
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 3.84
- Price/Book < 8 3.54
- Price/Sales < 7 2.10
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -12.2%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Carrier Global's margin of safety?
-44% on 2026-10-07 → -44% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Carrier Global in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Carrier Global?
21,824,974 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Carrier Global? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +15%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.8%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +12% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2019 0.02 → 0.81
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Carrier Global shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CARR's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Carrier Global's 10-year financials show?
From CARR's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 8 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Carrier Global
What kind of company is Carrier Global?
Carrier Global makes heating, ventilation and air-conditioning equipment, refrigeration and fire-and-security systems for buildings and cold-chain transport. Brands and businesses it owns include Carrier, Bryant, Viessmann and Automated Logic. This site groups it with Building stocks.
Is Carrier Global trading above or below its DCF value?
At $56.48, CARR trades 44.0% above this site's neutral DCF value of $39.23 per share, a margin of safety of −44.0%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Carrier Global pass?
CARR passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($46.5B), Price/Book < 8 (3.54) and Price/Sales < 7 (2.10). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (38.10), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.84) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-12.2%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Carrier Global's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates CARR Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.59 · accruals −2.8% of assets · 67% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count +0.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: cash conversion (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How risky is Carrier Global's balance sheet?
CARR's Altman Z″-Score is 2.35, which falls in the grey zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.91, against a sector median of 0.91. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
When does Carrier Global report earnings next?
Carrier Global's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.78 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +4.6%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Carrier Global's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 5, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Carrier Global Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Carrier Global Corp (CARR) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.