Expand Energy Corp (EXE) stock analysis
Expand Energy Corp (EXE) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 7 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $92.96 it trades 49.1% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +49.1%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns +3.8% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Expand Energy do?
Expand Energy is one of the largest US natural gas producers, with wells in the Appalachian and Haynesville regions.
What stands out about Expand Energy?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $92.96, EXE's free cash flow of $10.70 per share would have to shrink 8.4% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($21.5B) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-45.6%); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: P/E ratio. At 7.7× (peer median 17.2×) it ranks 1st of 21 among energy stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag, 1 watch. Beneish M-score −1.95 (grey zone), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals −9.8% of assets · 242% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +29.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
- Held by investors this site follows. Howard Marks (12.6% of its portfolio), from their latest 13F filings. See Superinvestors.
How has Expand Energy's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Expand Energy undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +49.1%
- P/E vs. its own history 7.7x · the middle Real range: 2.8x–14.6x over 3 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.12/5 32 analysts this month: 10 strong buy, 16 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 4.10 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 3.16 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag, 1 watch Beneish M-score −1.95 (grey zone), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals −9.8% of assets · 242% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +29.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.8% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 3.6% + buybacks 0.5% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (too few years of filings)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.41 · Well under fair P/E 7.7× ÷ 18.7% a year of growth behind it. 33rd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), real profit Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (too few years of filings); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 6 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other energy stocks this site tracks: 6 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Expand Energy compare with its peers?
6 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 20 other energy stocks tracked here, 6 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 17.2× 7.7× ✓1st of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 6.5% 11.5% ✓2nd of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 16% 15% –14th of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 13.5% 20.4% ✓6th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 11.2% 60.7% ✓1st of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.45 0.19 ✓3rd of 21
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.10% 3.55% ✓2nd of 21
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and EXE clears it. In its favor: EXE is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: EXE hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and EXE falls short of his bar. In its favor: EXE clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: EXE is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Expand Energy pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $21.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 7.74
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.41
- Price/Book < 8 1.11
- Price/Sales < 7 1.57
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -45.6%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Expand Energy's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Expand Energy in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Expand Energy?
9,765,481 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Expand Energy? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +70%
- Short interest under 5% of float 4.2%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +11% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2022 0.34 → 0.27
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Expand Energy shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from EXE's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Expand Energy's 10-year financials show?
From EXE's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 4 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Expand Energy
What kind of company is Expand Energy?
Expand Energy is one of the largest US natural gas producers, with wells in the Appalachian and Haynesville regions. This site groups it with Energy stocks.
Is Expand Energy trading above or below its DCF value?
At $92.96, EXE trades 49.1% below this site's neutral DCF value of $182.71 per share, a margin of safety of +49.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Expand Energy pass?
EXE passes 4 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (7.74), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.41), Price/Book < 8 (1.11) and Price/Sales < 7 (1.57). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($21.5B) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-45.6%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Expand Energy's share price pricing in?
At $92.96, EXE's free cash flow of $10.70 per share would have to shrink 8.4% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Are Expand Energy's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates EXE Mixed · 1 flag, 1 watch. Beneish M-score −1.95 (grey zone), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals −9.8% of assets · 242% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +29.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: the Beneish M-score (on watch) and share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
When does Expand Energy report earnings next?
Expand Energy's next earnings report is expected on October 27, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.26 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +5.7%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Expand Energy's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 18, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Expand Energy Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Expand Energy Corp (EXE) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.