Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) stock analysis
Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 7 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit insurance companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Erie Indemnity do?
Erie Indemnity manages the Erie Insurance Exchange, a policyholder-owned insurer, and earns fees for selling and servicing its policies.
What stands out about Erie Indemnity?
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($11.5B) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-7.6%); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: return on equity. At 25% (peer median 20%) it ranks 6th of 23 among insurance stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: P/E ratio. At 20.0× (peer median 13.2×) it ranks 20th of 23 among insurance stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 10.1% of the float is sold short, 12.2 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Erie Indemnity's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Erie Indemnity undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Insurance)
- P/E vs. its own history 20.0x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 26.8x–48.6x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.12/5 8 analysts this month: 3 strong buy, 3 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Insurance)
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 4 measures above the median Compared with the 22 other insurance stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) 2.2% gross Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.2% + buybacks 0.0%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 5%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (bank, insurer, lender or REIT)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.23† · Above fair P/E 20.0× ÷ 16.3% a year of growth behind it (5-year EPS growth: Finnhub reported no PEG, so this one is estimated). 125th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), real profit (n/a), cash back (n/a) Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (bank, insurer, lender or REIT); Profit is real: cannot be measured (no earnings-quality reading); Cash to owners: cannot be measured (stock comp not reported); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
How does Erie Indemnity compare with its peers?
2 of 4 measures sit above the median of the 22 other insurance stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 13.2× 20.0× ✕20th of 23
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 20% 25% ✓6th of 23
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 14.2% 14.0% –13th of 23
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 2.28% ✓6th of 23
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and ERIE clears it. In its favor: ERIE is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: ERIE is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and ERIE falls short of his bar. In its favor: ERIE isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: ERIE doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, and is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Erie Indemnity pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $11.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 20.02
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.23 †
- Price/Book < 8 4.68
- Price/Sales < 7 2.80
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -7.6%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Erie Indemnity's margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how insurance companies report cash flow.
Where is Erie Indemnity in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Erie Indemnity?
2,550,842 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Erie Indemnity? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Insurance)
- Short interest under 5% of float 10.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Erie Indemnity shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from ERIE's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Erie Indemnity's 10-year financials show?
From ERIE's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Erie Indemnity
What kind of company is Erie Indemnity?
Erie Indemnity manages the Erie Insurance Exchange, a policyholder-owned insurer, and earns fees for selling and servicing its policies. This site groups it with Insurance stocks.
Why does Erie Indemnity have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit insurers, whose operating cash flow swings with premiums, claims and investment float rather than with what is left over for owners. So ERIE gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Erie Indemnity pass?
ERIE passes 4 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (20.02), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.23), Price/Book < 8 (4.68) and Price/Sales < 7 (2.80). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($11.5B) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-7.6%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Is Erie Indemnity's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
ERIE trades at 20.0× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 26.8× and 48.6× (average 37.7×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
When does Erie Indemnity report earnings next?
Erie Indemnity's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.45 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 2 times, by an average of −7.8%.
How heavily is Erie Indemnity stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 10.1% of ERIE's float was sold short (2,550,842 shares, 12.2 days to cover), up 6.8% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Erie Indemnity's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 23, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Erie Indemnity Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.