CSX Corp (CSX) stock analysis
CSX Corp (CSX) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $51.67 it trades 74.6% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -74.6%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does CSX do?
CSX is a large US railroad hauling freight such as coal, chemicals, autos and intermodal containers across the eastern United States.
What stands out about CSX?
- The share price implies 22.3% yearly growth. At $51.67, CSX's free cash flow of $1.73 per share would have to grow 22.3% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (26.74) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.06); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is rising. It went from -84% on Oct 7 to -75% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Close to its 52-week high. At $51.67, CSX is within 2.9% of its high of $53.23, 53.4% above its low of $33.68. See the range.
- Strongest against peers: net margin. At 24.0% (peer median 5.5%) it ranks 2nd of 13 among transportation stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
How has CSX's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is CSX undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -74.6%
- P/E vs. its own history 26.7x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 16.1x–23.5x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.90/5 30 analysts this month: 7 strong buy, 14 buy, 8 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 1.85 · Grey zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.68 · accruals −4.0% of assets · 153% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count −3.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.4% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.0% + buybacks 1.5% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 43%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $4.73 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 14% return on capital Operating profit $4.0B → $5.1B, capital needed $31B → $36B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 14% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.06 · Well above fair P/E 26.7× ÷ 13.0% a year of growth behind it. 232nd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.3×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.06, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 12 other transportation stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does CSX compare with its peers?
2 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 12 other transportation stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.9× 26.7× –9th of 13
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.2% 3.4% ✕11th of 13
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 25% 26% –6th of 13
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 5.5% 24.0% ✓2nd of 13
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.8% 5.8% –8th of 13
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 1.31 ✕10th of 13
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.62% 1.07% –7th of 11
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CSX doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: CSX is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: CSX carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CSX falls short of his bar. In its favor: CSX is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: CSX doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does CSX pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $95.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 26.74
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.06
- Price/Book < 8 6.66
- Price/Sales < 7 6.41
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +52.7%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is CSX's margin of safety?
-84% on 2026-10-07 → -75% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is CSX in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in CSX?
42,982,741 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with CSX? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -3%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +53% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.97 → 1.43
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have CSX shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CSX's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do CSX's 10-year financials show?
From CSX's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about CSX
What kind of company is CSX?
CSX is a large US railroad hauling freight such as coal, chemicals, autos and intermodal containers across the eastern United States. This site groups it with Road & Rail stocks.
Is CSX trading above or below its DCF value?
At $51.67, CSX trades 74.6% above this site's neutral DCF value of $29.60 per share, a margin of safety of −74.6%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does CSX pass?
CSX passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($95.8B), Price/Book < 8 (6.66), Price/Sales < 7 (6.41) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+52.7%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (26.74) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.06). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Where is CSX trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $51.67, CSX trades 53.3% above its 52-week low of $33.68 and 2.9% below its 52-week high of $53.23.
How risky is CSX's balance sheet?
CSX's Altman Z″-Score is 1.85, which falls in the grey zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 1.31, against a sector median of 0.74. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
Is CSX's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
CSX trades at 26.7× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 16.1× and 23.5× (average 19.8×), so today's multiple is at or above the highest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: CSX's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 12, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this CSX Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on CSX Corp (CSX) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.