Aflac Inc (AFL) stock analysis
Aflac Inc (AFL) clears 8 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit insurance companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Aflac do?
Aflac sells supplemental health and life insurance, paid directly to policyholders on top of regular coverage, mostly in Japan and the United States.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Aflac
- Aflac Duck
What stands out about Aflac?
- No filter fails. AFL passes 8 of the 8 value filters. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: net margin. At 26.9% (peer median 14.2%) it ranks 1st of 23 among insurance stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Returns 7.8% of its value to owners a year. Dividends plus buybacks as a share of market value. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Revenue fell 3.0% a year. From $22.6 billion in fiscal 2016 to $17.2 billion in fiscal 2025, from its own 10-K filings.
How has Aflac's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Aflac undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Insurance)
- P/E vs. its own history 12.5x · the middle Real range: 9.3x–16.2x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 2.71/5 24 analysts this month: 1 strong buy, 2 buy, 12 hold, 7 sell, 2 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Insurance)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) n/a (bank, insurer or REIT)
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) 7.8% gross Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.0% + buybacks 5.8%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 43%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (bank, insurer, lender or REIT)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.40 · Above fair P/E 12.5× ÷ 9.0% a year of growth behind it. 152nd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), real profit (n/a), cash back (n/a) Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (bank, insurer, lender or REIT); Profit is real: cannot be measured (bank, insurer or REIT); Cash to owners: cannot be measured (stock comp not reported); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 4 measures above the median Compared with the 22 other insurance stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Aflac compare with its peers?
3 of 4 measures sit above the median of the 22 other insurance stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 13.2× 12.5× –11th of 23
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 20% 16% –14th of 23
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 14.2% 26.9% ✓1st of 23
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 1.96% –9th of 23
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and AFL doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: AFL is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: AFL hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and AFL falls short of his bar. In its favor: AFL isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: AFL doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, and is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Aflac pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $60.9B
- Trailing P/E < 25 12.53
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.40
- Price/Book < 8 2.01
- Price/Sales < 7 3.37
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +46.7%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) +5.9%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) +6.7%
What is Aflac's margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how insurance companies report cash flow.
Where is Aflac in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Aflac?
11,649,434 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Aflac? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Insurance)
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.6%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Aflac shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from AFL's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Aflac's 10-year financials show?
From AFL's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Aflac
What kind of company is Aflac?
Aflac sells supplemental health and life insurance, paid directly to policyholders on top of regular coverage, mostly in Japan and the United States. Brands and businesses it owns include Aflac and Aflac Duck. This site groups it with Insurance stocks.
Why does Aflac have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit insurers, whose operating cash flow swings with premiums, claims and investment float rather than with what is left over for owners. So AFL gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Aflac pass?
AFL passes 8 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($60.9B), Trailing P/E < 25 (12.53), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.40), Price/Book < 8 (2.01), Price/Sales < 7 (3.37), EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+46.7%), vs 50-day MA (±12%) (+5.9%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (+6.7%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Aflac return to shareholders?
AFL's gross shareholder yield is 7.8%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.0% + buybacks 5.8%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 43%. Its trailing dividend yield is 1.96%, paid out of 43% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags. See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How fast has Aflac grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025, AFL's revenue fell from $22.6 billion to $17.2 billion, 3.0% a year. Net income went from $2.7 billion to $3.6 billion, and its net profit margin from 11.8% to 21.2%. Earnings per share went from $3.21 to $6.82 on today's share count, 8.7% a year. All figures are from AFL's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
When does Aflac report earnings next?
Aflac's next earnings report is expected on November 4, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.81 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 1 time, by an average of +6.1%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Aflac's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 25, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Aflac Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Aflac Inc (AFL) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.