What Growth Is Priced Into Palantir Stock?
At $196.75, Palantir's share price implies free cash flow per share growing about 67% in the first year, then fading to 2.5% by year 10, on this site's model with a 10% discount rate. The stock page shows this as “above 40%”, the top of the range the site reports.
That is a description of the price, not a forecast and not a verdict: it shows what has to go right for this one model to match today's quote.
How does a reverse DCF find the growth in Palantir's price?
The site's reverse DCF keeps the price, a 10% discount rate and a 2.5% terminal rate fixed, and solves for the starting growth of free cash flow per share. Growth fades in a straight line over 10 years. The method is explained in what growth a share price implies.
Palantir's inputs, from the site's data refreshed October 23 to 24, 2026: price $196.75, free cash flow of $1.3975 per share, market value about $473 billion. That is a free cash flow yield of 0.44%, see free cash flow yield.
What has Palantir actually delivered?
| Year | Revenue | Revenue growth | Operating margin | Free cash flow | FCF margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $1.54B | 41% | -27% | $0.32B | 21% |
| 2022 | $1.91B | 24% | -8% | $0.18B | 10% |
| 2023 | $2.23B | 17% | 5% | $0.70B | 31% |
| 2024 | $2.87B | 29% | 11% | $1.14B | 40% |
| 2025 | $4.48B | 56% | 32% | $2.10B | 47% |
Source: this site's financials from Palantir's 10-K filings (operating margin is GAAP; free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capex). Growth has accelerated, and 2025 free cash flow of $2.1 billion is real cash.
Palantir's August 3, 2026 release (SEC Form 8-K) reported second-quarter revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93%, and guided 2026 revenue to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion, about 82% above 2025. Its guided adjusted free cash flow of $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion uses the company's own adjusted definition, so it is not comparable with the table.
What does 67% a year, fading, mean for the cash flow?
Run the model forward at the implied rate and free cash flow per share goes from $1.40 today to $11.35 in year 5 and $24.15 in year 10, about 17 times today's level.
As an illustration only: at the 2025 share count of 2,565 million, $24.15 a share is about $62 billion of free cash flow in year 10. At 2025's 47% free cash flow margin that would need revenue near $130 billion, about 29 times 2025's $4.5 billion. The price is about 106 times 2025 revenue.
The first years of the path are not far from what Palantir is reporting now. The harder part is how slowly growth has to fade for the cash flow to keep compounding.
How sensitive is the implied growth to the discount rate?
| Discount rate | Implied starting growth |
|---|---|
| 8% | 55.3% |
| 9% | 61.2% |
| 10% (the site's baseline) | 66.6% |
| 11% | 71.6% |
| 12% | 76.3% |
Each point of discount rate moves the answer by about 5 to 6 points of growth. The gold bar is the site's baseline rate. Changing the terminal rate from 2% to 3% moves it only from 68.6% to 64.6%.
The result is steady, not fragile: every reasonable discount rate leaves implied growth far above 40%. Try your own inputs in the intrinsic value calculator; the glossary defines the discount rate.
What are the limits of this number?
- One starting point. It starts from 2025 free cash flow per share, the last full fiscal year, so it ignores the 2026 results reported since.
- Per-share, not total. Stock-based pay was 15.3% of 2025 revenue and the share count rose about 5% in 2025, so per-share growth trails total growth. See stock-based compensation.
- Straight-line fade. Real growth does not fade evenly; a stall and a rebound can give the same total.
- Baseline for comparison. At the site's neutral 8% starting growth, the model values a share at $23.86, which describes the gap between that assumption and the price and nothing more.
A reverse DCF tells you what a price needs, not whether the business will deliver it. For other cases read what a reverse DCF is, and see the full card on Palantir's stock page.
Palantir implied growth FAQ
What growth does Palantir's stock price imply?
On this site's model at a 10% discount rate, free cash flow per share would have to grow about 67% in the first year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, to justify $196.75. The stock page shows this as above 40%, the top of its search range.
Is the implied growth a forecast for Palantir?
No. It describes what the price assumes under one set of model choices. It says nothing about whether Palantir will deliver that growth.
How does the discount rate change the answer?
A higher discount rate needs faster growth to reach the same price. At 8% the implied starting growth is about 55%; at 12% it is about 76%.
Why is the implied growth so much higher than Palantir's recent growth?
It is not, in the first year: revenue grew 56% in 2025 and is guided to grow 82% in 2026. What the price asks for is that high growth fades slowly enough for free cash flow per share to rise about 17 times over 10 years.
Does stock-based compensation affect the calculation?
Yes. The model uses free cash flow per share, and Palantir's stock-based pay (15.3% of 2025 revenue) adds shares over time, which makes per-share growth harder than total free cash flow growth.