Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) stock analysis
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $642.14 it trades 175.4% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -175.4%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns +0.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Seagate do?
Seagate makes hard disk drives that store data in cloud data centers, plus external and desktop drives for consumers. Data-center demand and drive capacity drive its results.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Seagate
- Barracuda
- IronWolf
- LaCie
What stands out about Seagate?
- The share price implies 34.5% yearly growth. At $642.14, STX's free cash flow of $13.65 per share would have to grow 34.5% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (45.86), Price/Book < 8 (67.38) and Price/Sales < 7 (11.97); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is rising. It went from -246% on Oct 7 to -175% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: return on equity. At 212% (peer median 24%) it ranks 2nd of 44 among technology stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.29 · accruals −5.4% of assets · 114% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.7% of revenue · share count +3.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jul 2026). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
How has Seagate's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Seagate undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -175.4%
- P/E vs. its own history 45.9x · near the expensive end Real range: 9.4x–64.2x over 4 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.10/5 30 analysts this month: 7 strong buy, 19 buy, 4 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.29 · accruals −5.4% of assets · 114% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.7% of revenue · share count +3.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jul 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +0.4% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 0.4% + buybacks 0.1% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 48%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) None needed · capital fell while profit grew Operating profit $1.4B → $2.1B, capital needed $3.1B → $3.1B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 70% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.98 · About fair P/E 45.9× ÷ 46.9% a year of growth behind it. 89th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.5×, under 2×); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.3% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 43 other technology stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Seagate compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 43 other technology stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.0× 45.9× ✕29th of 39
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 3.8% 2.1% ✕34th of 44
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 212% ✓2nd of 44
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 16.9% 26.1% ✓14th of 44
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 19.1% 34.1% ✓8th of 44
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.60 1.65 ✕35th of 44
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.04% 0.43% ✕15th of 17
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and STX doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: STX is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: STX carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and STX falls short of his bar. In its favor: STX clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast. Where it comes up short: STX is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, is priced above what he'd pay even for a company growing this quickly, and isn't generating enough free cash flow to justify a fast grower's richer price.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✕
- Price/FCF < 40 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Seagate pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $146.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 45.86
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.98
- Price/Book < 8 67.38
- Price/Sales < 7 11.97
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +148.0%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Seagate's margin of safety?
-246% on 2026-10-07 → -175% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Seagate in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Seagate?
6,972,672 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Seagate? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -63%
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.0%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +202% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 3.68 → 1.65
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Seagate shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from STX's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Seagate's 10-year financials show?
From STX's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Seagate
What kind of company is Seagate?
Seagate makes hard disk drives that store data in cloud data centers, plus external and desktop drives for consumers. Data-center demand and drive capacity drive its results. Brands and businesses it owns include Seagate, Barracuda, IronWolf and LaCie. This site groups it with Technology stocks.
Is Seagate trading above or below its DCF value?
At $642.14, STX trades 175.4% above this site's neutral DCF value of $233.17 per share, a margin of safety of −175.4%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Seagate pass?
STX passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($146.0B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.98) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+148.0%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (45.86), Price/Book < 8 (67.38) and Price/Sales < 7 (11.97). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Seagate's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates STX Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.29 · accruals −5.4% of assets · 114% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.7% of revenue · share count +3.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jul 2026). Concerns: share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
When does Seagate report earnings next?
Seagate's next earnings report is expected on October 27, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $7.49 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +13.4%.
Does Seagate raise any of Munger's inversion flags?
STX fails 3 of the 5 tests in this site's Munger-style inversion check, so it raises 3 flags: Margin of safety, even in the bull case (-63%); Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters (3/6 passed); and Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum (+202% off 52wk low). It passes Short interest under 5% of float and Debt/equity stable since 2017. Munger's habit was to invert the question and look for reasons to hesitate. These flags are data-driven prompts, not a verdict, and they cannot judge management, competitive position or accounting risk.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Seagate's 10-K annual report for the year ended Jul 3, 2026, filed Aug 4, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Seagate Technology Holdings PLC analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.