PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) stock analysis
PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 7 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit financial services companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +10.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does PayPal do?
PayPal runs a digital-payments platform for online checkout and person-to-person payments, with Venmo, card processing and buy-now-pay-later. It earns fees on the payment volume it handles.
Brands and businesses it owns
- PayPal
- Venmo
- Braintree
- Xoom
- Honey
- Zettle
What stands out about PayPal?
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.70); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: P/E ratio. At 10.0× (peer median 21.7×) it ranks 6th of 37 among financial services stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- P/E at the bottom of its own range. PYPL trades at 10.0× trailing earnings; at the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years the multiple was between 10.8× and 53.6×.
- Returns 10.6% of its value to owners a year. Dividends plus buybacks, minus the stock issued to staff, as a share of market value. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
How has PayPal's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is PayPal undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Financial Services)
- P/E vs. its own history 10.0x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 10.8x–53.6x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.29/5 51 analysts this month: 4 strong buy, 10 buy, 34 hold, 3 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Financial Services)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.68 · accruals −1.5% of assets · 137% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 3.0% of revenue · share count −6.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +10.6% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.3% + buybacks 12.4% − stock comp 2.0%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 12 years its split-adjusted share count fell 21%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $1.34 per $1 of new profit · FlightSafety-like Operating profit $2.0B → $5.5B, capital needed $9.8B → $15B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 38% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.70 · Above fair P/E 10.0× ÷ 5.9% a year of growth behind it. 194th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses price Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 1.70, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 3 measures above the median Compared with the 39 other financial services stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
How does PayPal compare with its peers?
2 of 3 measures sit above the median of the 39 other financial services stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 21.7× 10.0× ✓6th of 37
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 18% 24% ✓12th of 40
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 20.2% 14.4% –26th of 40
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and PYPL clears it. In its favor: PYPL is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: PYPL carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and PYPL falls short of his bar. In its favor: PYPL is growing earnings at the steady 10-20% pace of a proper Stalwart, isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, isn't asking investors to overpay for that growth, and is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: PYPL fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-20% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 27 ✓
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does PayPal pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $49.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 9.99
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.70
- Price/Book < 8 2.47
- Price/Sales < 7 1.44
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -3.0%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is PayPal's margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how financial services companies report cash flow.
Where is PayPal in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in PayPal?
29,919,083 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with PayPal? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Financial Services)
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have PayPal shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from PYPL's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do PayPal's 10-year financials show?
From PYPL's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about PayPal
What kind of company is PayPal?
PayPal runs a digital-payments platform for online checkout and person-to-person payments, with Venmo, card processing and buy-now-pay-later. It earns fees on the payment volume it handles. Brands and businesses it owns include PayPal, Venmo, Braintree, Xoom, Honey and Zettle. This site groups it with Financial Services stocks.
Why does PayPal have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit financial companies, whose operating cash flow swings with client money, loans and trading rather than with what is left over for owners. So PYPL gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does PayPal pass?
PYPL passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($49.0B), Trailing P/E < 25 (9.99), Price/Book < 8 (2.47), Price/Sales < 7 (1.44) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-3.0%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.70). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Does PayPal pass the Buffett-style and Lynch-style checklists?
On this site's Buffett-style checklist PYPL clears 7 of 8 checks and leans yes; it misses Debt/Equity < 0.5. On the Lynch-style checklist it clears 4 of 5 and leans no, with Stalwart as its Lynch category; it misses PEG < 1. These are this site's own rules written in the style of each investor, not their personal views; the rules are in the Editorial Standards.
Is PayPal's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
PYPL trades at 10.0× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 10.8× and 53.6× (average 27.2×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
When does PayPal report earnings next?
PayPal's next earnings report is expected on October 27, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.34 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +3.2%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: PayPal's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 3, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this PayPal Holdings Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.