NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) stock analysis
NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) clears 8 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $237.79 it trades 35.1% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -35.1%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does NXP do?
NXP designs chips for cars (its largest market), industrial equipment, mobile devices and secure connected products, from microcontrollers and car radar to secure payment chips. It is based in the Netherlands.
What stands out about NXP?
- The share price implies 15.6% yearly growth. At $237.79, NXPI's free cash flow of $10.31 per share would have to grow 15.6% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- No filter fails. NXPI passes 8 of the 8 value filters. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: P/E ratio. At 20.5× (peer median 42.5×) it ranks 4th of 19 among semiconductors stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: debt / equity. At 0.96 (peer median 0.29) it ranks 20th of 20 among semiconductors stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Balance sheet in the grey zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 2.25; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
How has NXP's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is NXP undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -35.1%
- P/E vs. its own history 20.5x · near the cheap end Real range: 15.0x–33.5x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.97/5 35 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 17 buy, 8 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 2.25 · Grey zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.57 · accruals −3.1% of assets · 124% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 3.8% of revenue · share count −1.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.4% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.7% + buybacks 1.5% − stock comp 0.8%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 8 years its split-adjusted share count fell 26%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) None needed · capital fell while profit grew · but only 21% return on capital Operating profit $1.8B → $3.4B, capital needed $16B → $16B, 2017–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 21% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.15 · Above fair P/E 20.5× ÷ 17.9% a year of growth behind it. 116th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses capital-light Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.9×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 19 other semiconductors stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does NXP compare with its peers?
4 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 19 other semiconductors stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 42.5× 20.5× ✓4th of 19
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 2.5% 4.3% ✓6th of 20
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 25% 28% –10th of 20
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 26.9% 22.6% –13th of 20
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 23.8% 8.8% ✕14th of 19
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.29 0.96 ✕20th of 20
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 0.66% 1.67% –6th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and NXPI doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: NXPI is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: NXPI carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and NXPI falls short of his bar. In its favor: NXPI is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: NXPI doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does NXP pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $61.1B
- Trailing P/E < 25 20.54
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.15
- Price/Book < 8 5.36
- Price/Sales < 7 4.64
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +72.2%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) +3.3%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) -3.4%
What is NXP's margin of safety?
-35% on 2026-10-07 → -35% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is NXP in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in NXP?
6,785,346 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with NXP? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +20%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +30% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2018 0.69 → 1.17
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have NXP shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from NXPI's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do NXP's 10-year financials show?
From NXPI's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 9 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about NXP
What kind of company is NXP?
NXP designs chips for cars (its largest market), industrial equipment, mobile devices and secure connected products, from microcontrollers and car radar to secure payment chips. It is based in the Netherlands. This site groups it with Semiconductors stocks.
Is NXP trading above or below its DCF value?
At $237.79, NXPI trades 35.1% above this site's neutral DCF value of $176.00 per share, a margin of safety of −35.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does NXP pass?
NXPI passes 8 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($61.1B), Trailing P/E < 25 (20.54), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.15), Price/Book < 8 (5.36), Price/Sales < 7 (4.64), EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+72.2%), vs 50-day MA (±12%) (+3.3%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (-3.4%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is NXP's share price pricing in?
At $237.79, NXPI's free cash flow of $10.31 per share would have to grow 15.6% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How risky is NXP's balance sheet?
NXPI's Altman Z″-Score is 2.25, which falls in the grey zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.96, against a sector median of 0.29. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
When does NXP report earnings next?
NXP's next earnings report is expected on October 27, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.17 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +0.3%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: NXP's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 19, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this NXP Semiconductors NV analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.