Moderna Inc (MRNA) stock analysis
Moderna Inc (MRNA) clears 2 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 1 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $202.63 it trades 421.7% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -421.7%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns −0.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Moderna do?
Moderna develops medicines based on messenger RNA, with its COVID-19 vaccine as its main product so far.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Spikevax
- mRESVIA
What stands out about Moderna?
- The share price implies more than 40% yearly growth. At $202.63, free cash flow per share would have to grow faster than 40% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF to match the price. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Price/Book < 8 (11.74) and Price/Sales < 7 (35.63); the other 2 pass and 4 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: return on equity. At −39% (peer median 23%) it ranks 15th of 15 among pharma & biotech stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −3.49 · accruals −7.2% of assets · stock comp 24.8% of revenue · share count +0.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
- Short interest is elevated. 8.3% of the float is sold short, 1.8 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Moderna's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Moderna undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -421.7%
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.32/5 31 analysts this month: 4 strong buy, 7 buy, 16 hold, 3 sell, 1 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.43 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 5.12 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −3.49 · accruals −7.2% of assets · stock comp 24.8% of revenue · share count +0.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) −0.6% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.6%, as a share of today's market cap. Stock comp outruns what comes back in cash. Over 6 years its split-adjusted share count rose 17%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit −$302M → −$3.8B, capital needed $6M → $999M, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now −376% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (falling or negative earnings)
- Compounder lenses (4) 0 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back, price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit started from a loss); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: not cleared (0.0% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (falling or negative earnings). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 1 of 5 measures above the median Compared with the 14 other pharma & biotech stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
How does Moderna compare with its peers?
1 of 5 measure sits above the median of the 14 other pharma & biotech stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.5% 1.1% ✕14th of 15
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 23% −39% ✕15th of 15
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 16.2% −141.4% ✕15th of 15
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 5.5% −27.6% ✕15th of 15
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.94 0.09 ✓4th of 15
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and MRNA doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: MRNA carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity. Where it comes up short: MRNA isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and MRNA falls short of his bar. In its favor: MRNA isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth. Where it comes up short: MRNA fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth, and isn't generating free cash flow to match the growth story.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 27 n/a
- Price/FCF < 30 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Moderna pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $79.4B
- Trailing P/E < 25 n/a
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 -4.96
- Price/Book < 8 11.74
- Price/Sales < 7 35.63
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Moderna's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Moderna in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Moderna?
30,863,202 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Moderna? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -208%
- Short interest under 5% of float 8.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +788% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2024 0.00 → 0.07
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Moderna shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for MRNA yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from MRNA's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Moderna's 10-year financials show?
From MRNA's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Moderna
What kind of company is Moderna?
Moderna develops medicines based on messenger RNA, with its COVID-19 vaccine as its main product so far. Brands and businesses it owns include Spikevax and mRESVIA. This site groups it with Biotechnology stocks.
Is Moderna trading above or below its DCF value?
At $202.63, MRNA trades 421.7% above this site's neutral DCF value of $38.84 per share, a margin of safety of −421.7%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Moderna pass?
MRNA passes 2 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($79.4B) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (-4.96). It misses Price/Book < 8 (11.74) and Price/Sales < 7 (35.63). Trailing P/E < 25, EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Moderna's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates MRNA Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −3.49 · accruals −7.2% of assets · stock comp 24.8% of revenue · share count +0.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: stock-based compensation (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
When does Moderna report earnings next?
Moderna's next earnings report is expected on November 6, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $-1.28 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +30.3%.
How heavily is Moderna stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 8.3% of MRNA's float was sold short (30,863,202 shares, 1.8 days to cover), down 6.1% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Moderna's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 20, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Moderna Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Moderna Inc (MRNA) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.