Moody's Corp (MCO) stock analysis
Moody's Corp (MCO) clears 2 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit financial services companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.5% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Moody's do?
Moody's rates the credit of companies and governments and sells risk data, analytics and software to banks and investors. Ratings and analytics bring in most of its revenue.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Moody's Investors Service
- Moody's Analytics
- Bureau van Dijk
What stands out about Moody's?
- Misses 4 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (29.63), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.39) and Price/Book < 8 (27.38) and 1 more; the other 2 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: return on equity. At 80% (peer median 18%) it ranks 3rd of 40 among financial services stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: dividend yield. At 0.85% (peer median 1.56%) it ranks 30th of 33 among financial services stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 0.85%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Moody's' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Moody's undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Financial Services)
- P/E vs. its own history 29.6x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 33.1x–44.7x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.03/5 30 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 13 buy, 8 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 4.00 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Financial Services)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.49 · accruals −2.8% of assets · 129% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 3.0% of revenue · share count −1.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.5% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.8% + buybacks 1.9% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 22%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $3.39 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry Operating profit $1.4B → $2.8B, capital needed $3.9B → $8.4B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 33% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.39 · Well above fair P/E 29.6× ÷ 12.4% a year of growth behind it. 268th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.9×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.39, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 4 measures above the median Compared with the 39 other financial services stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Moody's compare with its peers?
2 of 4 measures sit above the median of the 39 other financial services stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 21.7× 29.6× ✕28th of 37
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 18% 80% ✓3rd of 40
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 20.2% 34.3% ✓7th of 40
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.56% 0.85% ✕30th of 33
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and MCO doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: MCO is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: MCO carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and MCO falls short of his bar. In its favor: MCO is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: MCO doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
From Berkshire Hathaway's SEC 13F-HR filing dated 2026-08-14, compared with its 2026-05-15 filing - its own disclosed position, separate from this site's Buffett-style checklist above. 13F filings cover only U.S.-listed equity holdings and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days.
Which of the 8 value filters does Moody's pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $82.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 29.63
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.39
- Price/Book < 8 27.38
- Price/Sales < 7 10.15
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +56.9%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Moody's' margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how financial services companies report cash flow.
Where is Moody's in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Moody's?
2,802,723 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Moody's? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Financial Services)
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.9%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 2/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Moody's shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from MCO's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Moody's' 10-year financials show?
From MCO's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Moody's
What kind of company is Moody's?
Moody's rates the credit of companies and governments and sells risk data, analytics and software to banks and investors. Ratings and analytics bring in most of its revenue. Brands and businesses it owns include Moody's Investors Service, Moody's Analytics and Bureau van Dijk. This site groups it with Financial Services stocks.
Why does Moody's have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit financial companies, whose operating cash flow swings with client money, loans and trading rather than with what is left over for owners. So MCO gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Moody's pass?
MCO passes 2 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($82.8B) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+56.9%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (29.63), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.39), Price/Book < 8 (27.38) and Price/Sales < 7 (10.15). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Moody's return to shareholders?
MCO's net shareholder yield is +2.5%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.8% + buybacks 1.9% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 22%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.85%, paid out of 23% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (high leverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Is Moody's's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
MCO trades at 29.6× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 33.1× and 44.7× (average 38.9×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Which well-known investors own Moody's?
Among the investors whose SEC 13F filings this site tracks, Chris Hohn (12.3% of the portfolio; unchanged), Chuck Akre (10.3% of the portfolio; trimmed the position) and Warren Buffett (3.7% of the portfolio; unchanged) held MCO as of June 30, 2026. 13F filings cover only US-listed equities and arrive up to 45 days after the quarter ends, so they lag the real portfolios. See Superinvestors.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Moody's's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 18, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Moody's Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Moody's Corp (MCO) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.