Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) stock analysis
Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) clears 2 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $193.29 it trades 153.3% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -153.3%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +1.0% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Howmet Aerospace do?
Howmet Aerospace makes engine parts, fasteners and structural components for aircraft, plus some products for industrial uses.
What stands out about Howmet Aerospace?
- The share price implies 32.2% yearly growth. At $193.29, HWM's free cash flow of $4.47 per share would have to grow 32.2% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 4 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (41.41), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.67) and Price/Book < 8 (13.52) and 1 more; the other 2 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Close to its 52-week low. At $193.29, HWM is 5.0% above its low of $184.09 and 34.0% below its high of $292.65. See the range.
- Strongest against peers: net margin. At 20.5% (peer median 8.2%) it ranks 2nd of 12 among aerospace & defense stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: P/E ratio. At 41.4× (peer median 27.1×) it ranks 10th of 12 among aerospace & defense stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
How has Howmet Aerospace's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Howmet Aerospace undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -153.3%
- P/E vs. its own history 41.4x · the middle Real range: 29.4x–55.2x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.18/5 28 analysts this month: 10 strong buy, 13 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 4.14 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 4.57 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.50 · accruals −3.5% of assets · 119% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.9% of revenue · share count −1.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +1.0% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.2% + buybacks 0.9% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 5%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) None needed · capital fell while profit grew · but only 20% return on capital Operating profit $736M → $1.6B, capital needed $13B → $8.3B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 20% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.67 · Above fair P/E 41.4× ÷ 24.8% a year of growth behind it. 190th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, cash back, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 20% return on capital); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.7% a year net); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 1.67, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 11 other aerospace & defense stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Howmet Aerospace compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 11 other aerospace & defense stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 27.1× 41.4× ✕10th of 12
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.9% 2.3% ✕10th of 12
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 22% 34% –5th of 12
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 8.2% 20.5% ✓2nd of 12
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 12.8% 18.1% ✓4th of 12
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.66 0.79 –7th of 12
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.73% 0.25% ✕9th of 11
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and HWM doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: HWM is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: HWM carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and HWM falls short of his bar. In its favor: HWM is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone. Where it comes up short: HWM doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, is priced above what he'd pay even for a company growing this quickly, and isn't generating enough free cash flow to justify a fast grower's richer price.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✕
- Price/FCF < 40 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Howmet Aerospace pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $77.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 41.41
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.67
- Price/Book < 8 13.52
- Price/Sales < 7 8.50
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +32.5%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Howmet Aerospace's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Howmet Aerospace in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Howmet Aerospace?
10,155,412 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Howmet Aerospace? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -50%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.6%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 2/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +6% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.57 → 0.57
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Howmet Aerospace shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from HWM's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Howmet Aerospace's 10-year financials show?
From HWM's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Howmet Aerospace
What kind of company is Howmet Aerospace?
Howmet Aerospace makes engine parts, fasteners and structural components for aircraft, plus some products for industrial uses. This site groups it with Aerospace & Defense stocks.
Is Howmet Aerospace trading above or below its DCF value?
At $193.29, HWM trades 153.3% above this site's neutral DCF value of $76.30 per share, a margin of safety of −153.3%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Howmet Aerospace pass?
HWM passes 2 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($77.5B) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+32.5%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (41.41), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.67), Price/Book < 8 (13.52) and Price/Sales < 7 (8.50). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How fast has Howmet Aerospace grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025, HWM's revenue fell from $12.4 billion to $8.3 billion, 4.4% a year. Net income went from −$941 million to $1.5 billion, and its net profit margin from -7.6% to 18.3%. In fiscal 2025 it produced $1.4 billion of free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending), 17.3% of its revenue. All figures are from HWM's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
Where is Howmet Aerospace trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $193.29, HWM trades 5.6% above its 52-week low of $184.09 and 34.0% below its 52-week high of $292.65. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
When does Howmet Aerospace report earnings next?
Howmet Aerospace's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.38 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +6.6%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Howmet Aerospace's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 12, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Howmet Aerospace Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.