Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) stock analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 3 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $358.07 it trades 143.4% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -143.4%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +3.9% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Hilton do?
Hilton franchises, manages and licenses hotels and owns very few itself. Fees from more than 8,000 properties produce most of its revenue.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Hilton
- Hampton by Hilton
- Hilton Garden Inn
- DoubleTree
- Embassy Suites
- Conrad
- Waldorf Astoria
- Homewood Suites
- Tru by Hilton
What stands out about Hilton?
- The share price implies 31.1% yearly growth. At $358.07, HLT's free cash flow of $8.61 per share would have to grow 31.1% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (50.88), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.35) and Price/Book < 8 (805.93); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: dividend yield. At 0.17% (peer median 1.93%) it ranks 13th of 13 among hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is -0.06; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 0.17%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Hilton's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Hilton undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -143.4%
- P/E vs. its own history 50.9x · near the cheap end Real range: 27.9x–106.9x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.76/5 33 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 15 buy, 13 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.79 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) -0.06 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.60 · accruals −4.0% of assets · 147% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.4% of revenue · share count −5.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.9% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.2% + buybacks 3.9% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 13 years its split-adjusted share count fell 23%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) None needed · capital fell while profit grew Operating profit $1.1B → $2.4B, capital needed $5.8B → $3.9B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 62% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 3.35 · Well above fair P/E 50.9× ÷ 15.2% a year of growth behind it. 357th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses price Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 3.35, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 17 other hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Hilton compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 17 other hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.2× 50.9× ✕16th of 18
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 2.4% ✕17th of 18
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 55% 171% ✓3rd of 18
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.7% 12.7% –7th of 18
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 8.7% –7th of 18
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 5.84 73.65 ✕15th of 17
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.93% 0.17% ✕13th of 13
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and HLT doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: HLT is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, and converts sales into profit at healthy margins. Where it comes up short: HLT carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and HLT falls short of his bar. In its favor: HLT is growing at the modest, GDP-ish pace typical of a slow grower. Where it comes up short: HLT doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business, and trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Hilton pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $80.6B
- Trailing P/E < 25 50.88
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 3.35
- Price/Book < 8 805.93
- Price/Sales < 7 6.46
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +14.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Hilton's margin of safety?
-119% on 2026-10-07 → -143% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Hilton in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Hilton?
5,579,089 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Hilton? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -44%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +39% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.18 → 13.05
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Hilton shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for HLT yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from HLT's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Hilton's 10-year financials show?
From HLT's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Hilton
What kind of company is Hilton?
Hilton franchises, manages and licenses hotels and owns very few itself. Fees from more than 8,000 properties produce most of its revenue. Brands and businesses it owns include Hilton, Hampton by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, DoubleTree, Embassy Suites and Conrad. This site groups it with Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure stocks.
Is Hilton trading above or below its DCF value?
At $358.07, HLT trades 143.4% above this site's neutral DCF value of $147.11 per share, a margin of safety of −143.4%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Hilton pass?
HLT passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($80.6B), Price/Sales < 7 (6.46) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+14.3%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (50.88), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.35) and Price/Book < 8 (805.93). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Hilton return to shareholders?
HLT's net shareholder yield is +3.9%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.2% + buybacks 3.9% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 13 years its split-adjusted share count fell 23%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.17%, paid out of 7% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (high leverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How risky is Hilton's balance sheet?
HLT's Altman Z″-Score is −0.06, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 73.65, against a sector median of 5.84. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
When does Hilton report earnings next?
Hilton's next earnings report is expected on October 27, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.38 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +1.0%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Hilton's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 11, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.