CME Group Inc (CME) stock analysis
CME Group Inc (CME) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit financial services companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +3.5% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does CME Group do?
CME Group operates futures and options exchanges where interest-rate, stock-index, energy, metals and agricultural contracts trade, and clears those trades. It earns fees per contract traded.
Brands and businesses it owns
- CME
- CBOT
- NYMEX
- COMEX
What stands out about CME Group?
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.27) and Price/Sales < 7 (8.64); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: net margin. At 34.8% (peer median 20.2%) it ranks 6th of 40 among financial services stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Insiders have been buying. 1 open-market purchase was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the last 90 days, about $70.8 million in all. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
- Held by investors this site follows. Seth Klarman (2.5% of its portfolio), from their latest 13F filings. See Superinvestors.
How has CME Group's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is CME Group undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Financial Services)
- P/E vs. its own history 24.8x · near the cheap end Real range: 22.4x–31.1x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.48/5 21 analysts this month: 2 strong buy, 9 buy, 7 hold, 3 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Financial Services)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.54 · accruals −0.1% of assets · 106% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.5% of revenue · share count +0.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.5% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 3.6% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 8%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.66 per $1 of new profit · See's-like Operating profit $2.4B → $3.9B, capital needed $12B → $13B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 30% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 3.27 · Well above fair P/E 24.8× ÷ 7.6% a year of growth behind it. 353rd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.6×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 3.27, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 4 measures above the median Compared with the 39 other financial services stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does CME Group compare with its peers?
2 of 4 measures sit above the median of the 39 other financial services stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 21.7× 24.8× –22nd of 37
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 18% 16% –25th of 40
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 20.2% 34.8% ✓6th of 40
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.56% 3.72% ✓8th of 33
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CME doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: CME is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: CME is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CME falls short of his bar. In its favor: CME is growing earnings at the steady 10-20% pace of a proper Stalwart, isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, isn't asking investors to overpay for that growth, and is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: CME fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-20% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 27 ✓
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
- Bonus: insiders buying (90d) 1 buy, ~$70.8M
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does CME Group pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $109.6B
- Trailing P/E < 25 24.82
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 3.27
- Price/Book < 8 4.13
- Price/Sales < 7 8.64
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +14.8%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is CME Group's margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how financial services companies report cash flow.
Where is CME Group in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in CME Group?
5,526,063 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with CME Group? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Financial Services)
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have CME Group shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CME's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do CME Group's 10-year financials show?
From CME's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about CME Group
What kind of company is CME Group?
CME Group operates futures and options exchanges where interest-rate, stock-index, energy, metals and agricultural contracts trade, and clears those trades. It earns fees per contract traded. Brands and businesses it owns include CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. This site groups it with Financial Services stocks.
Why does CME Group have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit financial companies, whose operating cash flow swings with client money, loans and trading rather than with what is left over for owners. So CME gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does CME Group pass?
CME passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($109.6B), Trailing P/E < 25 (24.82), Price/Book < 8 (4.13) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+14.8%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.27) and Price/Sales < 7 (8.64). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does CME Group return to shareholders?
CME's net shareholder yield is +3.5%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 3.6% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 8%. Its trailing dividend yield is 3.72%, paid out of 96% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags. See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Which well-known investors own CME Group?
Among the investors whose SEC 13F filings this site tracks, Seth Klarman (2.5% of the portfolio; a new position) held CME as of June 30, 2026. 13F filings cover only US-listed equities and arrive up to 45 days after the quarter ends, so they lag the real portfolios. See Superinvestors.
Are CME Group's insiders buying its shares?
Yes: 1 open-market insider purchase of CME Group shares, worth about $70.8 million in total, was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the 90 days up to this page's last update. Only open-market purchases count here, not option exercises or stock awards. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: CME Group's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 26, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this CME Group Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on CME Group Inc (CME) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.