Carnival Corp (CCL) stock analysis
Carnival Corp (CCL) clears 8 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 3 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $27.08 it trades 32.2% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +32.2%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns −0.3% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Carnival do?
Carnival Corporation is the largest cruise company in the world. It runs a group of cruise brands that sell ship vacations around the globe and earns from ticket sales and on-board spending.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Carnival Cruise Line
- Princess Cruises
- Holland America Line
- Seabourn
- Cunard
- P&O Cruises
- Costa Cruises
- AIDA
What stands out about Carnival?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $27.08, CCL's free cash flow of $2.34 per share would have to shrink 1.5% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- No filter fails. CCL passes 8 of the 8 value filters. See every filter.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.66 · accruals −6.9% of assets · 357% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +5.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Nov 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 0.09; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
- Owners are being diluted. Its net shareholder yield is −0.3%: more stock is issued than is bought back or paid out. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
How has Carnival's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Carnival undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +32.2%
- P/E vs. its own history 11.7x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 13.1x–18.6x over 2 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.06/5 34 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 18 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 4.09 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 0.09 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.66 · accruals −6.9% of assets · 357% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +5.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Nov 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) −0.3% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Stock comp outruns what comes back in cash. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 78%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $8.26 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 9% return on capital Operating profit $3.1B → $3.3B, capital needed $33B → $35B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 9% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.09 · About fair P/E 11.7× ÷ 10.8% a year of growth behind it. 105th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.1×, under 2×); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: not cleared (−0.2% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 17 other hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Carnival compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 17 other hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.2× 11.7× ✓2nd of 18
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 8.6% ✓5th of 18
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 55% 24% ✕15th of 18
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.7% 11.4% –11th of 18
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 5.2% ✕14th of 18
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 5.84 1.69 ✓4th of 17
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.93% 1.68% –8th of 13
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CCL doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: CCL is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: CCL and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CCL falls short of his bar. In its favor: CCL is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: CCL doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Carnival pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $36.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 11.73
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.09
- Price/Book < 8 2.59
- Price/Sales < 7 1.33
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +6.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) +9.2%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) -0.4%
What is Carnival's margin of safety?
+34% on 2026-10-07 → +32% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Carnival in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Carnival?
40,981,501 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Carnival? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +60%
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +24% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.40 → 2.17
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Carnival shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for CCL yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CCL's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Carnival's 10-year financials show?
From CCL's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Carnival
What kind of company is Carnival?
Carnival Corporation is the largest cruise company in the world. It runs a group of cruise brands that sell ship vacations around the globe and earns from ticket sales and on-board spending. Brands and businesses it owns include Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, Seabourn, Cunard and P&O Cruises. This site groups it with Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure stocks.
Is Carnival trading above or below its DCF value?
At $27.08, CCL trades 32.2% below this site's neutral DCF value of $39.92 per share, a margin of safety of +32.2%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Carnival pass?
CCL passes 8 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($36.8B), Trailing P/E < 25 (11.73), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.09), Price/Book < 8 (2.59), Price/Sales < 7 (1.33), EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+6.3%), vs 50-day MA (±12%) (+9.2%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (-0.4%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Carnival's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates CCL Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.66 · accruals −6.9% of assets · 357% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +5.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Nov 2025). Concerns: share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How risky is Carnival's balance sheet?
CCL's Altman Z″-Score is 0.09, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 1.69, against a sector median of 5.84. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
Is Carnival's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
CCL trades at 11.7× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 2 fiscal years its P/E was between 13.1× and 18.6× (average 15.8×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Carnival's 10-K annual report for the year ended Nov 30, 2025, filed Jan 27, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Carnival Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Carnival Corp (CCL) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.