Atmos Energy Corp (ATO) stock analysis
Atmos Energy Corp (ATO) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 3 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit utilities companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns +1.9% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Atmos Energy do?
Atmos Energy is a natural gas utility that delivers gas to homes and businesses in several southern and central US states.
What stands out about Atmos Energy?
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.91); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: debt / equity. At 0.68 (peer median 1.77) it ranks 1st of 31 among utilities stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: dividend yield. At 2.19% (peer median 3.01%) it ranks 28th of 31 among utilities stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Insiders have been buying. 1 open-market purchase was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the last 90 days, about $0.1 million in all. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
How has Atmos Energy's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Atmos Energy undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Utilities)
- P/E vs. its own history 20.6x · the middle Real range: 17.2x–22.9x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.44/5 18 analysts this month: 2 strong buy, 4 buy, 12 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.50 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Utilities)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag accruals −3.2% of assets · 232% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count +5.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +1.9% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.9% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.0%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 77%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $20.90 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 6% return on capital Operating profit $707M → $1.3B, capital needed $9.9B → $23B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 6% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.91 · Above fair P/E 20.6× ÷ 10.8% a year of growth behind it. 215th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.9×, under 2×); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 1.91, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 30 other utilities stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Atmos Energy compare with its peers?
3 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 30 other utilities stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 21.2× 20.6× –12th of 31
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 10% 10% –19th of 31
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 14.1% 28.5% ✓2nd of 31
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.5% 6.5% –21st of 31
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 1.77 0.68 ✓1st of 31
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 3.01% 2.19% ✕28th of 31
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and ATO doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: ATO converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: ATO isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and ATO falls short of his bar. In its favor: ATO is growing earnings at the steady 10-20% pace of a proper Stalwart, and isn't asking investors to overpay for that growth. Where it comes up short: ATO fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, and isn't generating free cash flow to match the growth story.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-20% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 27 ✓
- Price/FCF < 30 ✕
- Bonus: insiders buying (90d) 1 buy, ~$0.1M
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Atmos Energy pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $28.9B
- Trailing P/E < 25 20.62
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.91
- Price/Book < 8 1.90
- Price/Sales < 7 5.88
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +23.9%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Atmos Energy's margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how utilities companies report cash flow.
Where is Atmos Energy in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Atmos Energy?
4,502,560 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Atmos Energy? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Utilities)
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Atmos Energy shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from ATO's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Atmos Energy's 10-year financials show?
From ATO's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Atmos Energy
What kind of company is Atmos Energy?
Atmos Energy is a natural gas utility that delivers gas to homes and businesses in several southern and central US states. This site groups it with Utilities stocks.
Why does Atmos Energy have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit regulated utilities, which reinvest nearly all of their operating cash flow, so free cash flow per share is tiny next to the share price. So ATO gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Atmos Energy pass?
ATO passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($28.9B), Trailing P/E < 25 (20.62), Price/Book < 8 (1.90), Price/Sales < 7 (5.88) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+23.9%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.91). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Atmos Energy's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates ATO Mixed · 1 flag. accruals −3.2% of assets · 232% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count +5.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025). Concerns: share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
Are Atmos Energy's insiders buying its shares?
Yes: 1 open-market insider purchase of Atmos Energy shares, worth about $0.1 million in total, was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the 90 days up to this page's last update. Only open-market purchases count here, not option exercises or stock awards. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
When does Atmos Energy report earnings next?
Atmos Energy's next earnings report is expected on November 4, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.15 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +3.2%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Atmos Energy's 10-K annual report for the year ended Sep 30, 2025, filed Nov 14, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Atmos Energy Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Atmos Energy Corp (ATO) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.