AES Corp (AES) stock analysis
AES Corp (AES) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit utilities companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +4.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does AES do?
AES Corporation generates and distributes electricity, with power plants and utilities in the Americas, and a growing share from wind, solar and energy storage.
What stands out about AES?
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($10.7B); the other 4 pass and 3 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: return on equity. At 43% (peer median 10%) it ranks 1st of 31 among utilities stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: debt / equity. At 6.50 (peer median 1.77) it ranks 31st of 31 among utilities stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 3 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 4.70%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has AES' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is AES undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Utilities)
- P/E vs. its own history 5.7x · near the cheap end Real range: 5.5x–55.0x over 3 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 2.65/5 17 analysts this month: 0 strong buy, 0 buy, 12 hold, 4 sell, 1 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 2.67 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Utilities)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.77 · accruals −6.8% of assets · 356% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.1% of revenue · share count +0.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +4.6% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 4.7% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 9%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $2.1B → $1.8B, capital needed $21B → $32B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 5% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.06 · Well under fair P/E 5.7× ÷ 90.7% a year of growth behind it. 5th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses capital-light Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.8×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 30 other utilities stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 3/6 flags
How does AES compare with its peers?
5 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 30 other utilities stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 21.2× 5.7× ✓2nd of 31
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 10% 43% ✓1st of 31
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 14.1% 14.3% –15th of 31
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.5% 8.5% –14th of 31
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 1.77 6.50 ✕31st of 31
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 3.01% 4.70% ✓2nd of 31
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and AES doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: AES is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years. Where it comes up short: AES and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and AES falls short of his bar. In its favor: AES clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, and isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple. Where it comes up short: AES is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, and isn't generating enough free cash flow to justify a fast grower's richer price.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does AES pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $10.7B
- Trailing P/E < 25 5.70
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.06
- Price/Book < 8 2.16
- Price/Sales < 7 0.82
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is AES' margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how utilities companies report cash flow.
Where is AES in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in AES?
23,613,828 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with AES? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Utilities)
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have AES shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from AES's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do AES' 10-year financials show?
From AES's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about AES
What kind of company is AES?
AES Corporation generates and distributes electricity, with power plants and utilities in the Americas, and a growing share from wind, solar and energy storage. This site groups it with Utilities stocks.
Why does AES have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit regulated utilities, which reinvest nearly all of their operating cash flow, so free cash flow per share is tiny next to the share price. So AES gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does AES pass?
AES passes 4 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (5.70), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.06), Price/Book < 8 (2.16) and Price/Sales < 7 (0.82). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($10.7B). EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Does AES pass the Buffett-style and Lynch-style checklists?
On this site's Buffett-style checklist AES clears 2 of 8 checks and leans no; it misses ROE (5yr avg) > 11%, Debt/Equity < 0.5 and Pretax margin > 15% and 3 more. On the Lynch-style checklist it clears 2 of 5 and leans no, with Fast Grower as its Lynch category; it misses EPS growth 20%-50%, Debt/Equity < 0.5 and Price/FCF < 40. These are this site's own rules written in the style of each investor, not their personal views; the rules are in the Editorial Standards.
How much cash does AES return to shareholders?
AES's net shareholder yield is +4.6%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 4.7% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 9%. Its trailing dividend yield is 4.70%, paid out of 190% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 3 of 6 flags (a high cash-flow payout, high leverage and weak interest coverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
When does AES report earnings next?
AES's next earnings report is expected on November 2, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.74 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 2 times, by an average of +22.8%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: AES's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Mar 2, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this AES Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on AES Corp (AES) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.