Will Micron (MU) Stock Keep Growing? The Numbers
Micron's growth can continue while memory stays scarce, and it has said it sees no point at which supply and demand balance. In its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in early September 2026, revenue was $54.23 billion, up 31% on the quarter and 379% on the year, and it guided to $60 billion to $63 billion for the next one. The risk is the one memory has always had: high prices pay for new factories, and new factories end shortages. At $856.49 MU trades at 11.6 times trailing earnings and 32% below its 52-week high. This is analysis, not a recommendation.
How fast is Micron growing?
| Measure | Latest result | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue | $54.23 billion | Up 31% on the prior quarter and 379% on the year |
| Fiscal 2026 revenue | $133.2 billion | Fiscal year ended in early September 2026 |
| Adjusted EPS | $33.42 | Against $31.16 expected by analysts |
| Adjusted gross margin | 87% | Cost of making the memory is a small slice of its price |
| Operating cash flow (Q4) | $43.97 billion | $25.39 billion in the prior quarter |
| Adjusted free cash flow (Q4) | $33.20 billion | About 61% of revenue |
| Cash and investments | $73.48 billion | At fiscal year-end |
| Next-quarter guidance | $60 to $63 billion revenue | About 86.3% adjusted gross margin and EPS of $37.15 to $39.15 |
Figures are from Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report and call as published at the end of September 2026. Revenue four times the level of a year earlier is unusual for a company this size, which is why the next question matters more than the last one.
Micron's fiscal Q4 2026 revenue by business unit. The two data-center units, shown in green, were 63% of the quarter. Source: Micron earnings call, September 2026.
What is driving Micron's growth?
Micron makes DRAM and NAND memory. AI data centers need far more of it than earlier computers did, and the most valuable kind is high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which sits next to the processor. Three things stand out in the latest call:
- Pricing: management said it has raised HBM pricing significantly for calendar 2027, resetting at the start of that year.
- Locked-in demand: 26 strategic customer agreements cover about 35% of production bit volume through 2030, and more than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are under allocation or contract.
- Product: HBM4E is a custom design built with NVIDIA, which management called the first major custom HBM product in the market.
Together these mean a large part of next year's revenue is already spoken for. Contracts do not guarantee prices, but they reduce how much can change quickly.
What could stop Micron's growth?
Memory is a cyclical business, and the cycle turns on supply. Micron's own comments point to both sides:
| Factor | What Micron said or did | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Supply additions | Capex of $27.37 billion in fiscal 2026, mostly for new clean rooms in Idaho and Singapore. Idaho is expected to produce its first wafers around mid-2027 and a new Singapore clean room to open in the second half of 2028 | More capacity is how a shortage ends, for Micron and for rivals |
| Balance of supply and demand | A manager said the company has no line of sight to when supply and demand balance, and that new technology steps add less supply than they used to | Supports growth now, and also signals how long the scarcity has lasted |
| Weaker segments | Mobile and client bit shipments fell on the quarter for two quarters in a row | Phones and PCs are not sharing in the AI boom |
| China | Expected to be in the single digits as a share of fiscal 2027 | A smaller exposure to one policy risk |
| Spending | R&D is set to rise by more than $1 billion in fiscal 2027, and the shares fell after hours on the heavier capex plans | Higher costs reach profit if prices stop rising |
The pattern in past memory cycles is that record margins attract investment, and the investment arrives two to three years later. That is general history rather than a forecast, and nobody can say when it repeats. It is the reason a low price-to-earnings ratio on peak earnings deserves a second look: how to check if a stock is a value trap explains the test.
How does MU look on this site's checks?
These come from the weekly data of October 23, 2026, on the Micron stock page:
| Measure | MU | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $856.49 | 32% below its 52-week high of $1,255 |
| Market value | $984 billion | About one trillion dollars |
| Trailing P/E | 11.6 | Forward P/E of 6.5 on analyst estimates |
| Price to sales / price to book | 7.4 / 7.1 | Price to sales is above this site's limit of 7 |
| Free cash flow per share | $51.33 | A free-cash-flow yield of about 6.0% |
| Beta | 2.38 | The stock has moved more than twice as much as the market |
| 1-year / 1-month price change | +326% / -19.6% | RSI of 35.2 after the recent drop |
| Value filters passed | 5 of 8 | Buffett-style 8 of 8 and Lynch-style 4 of 5 |
| Margin of safety (DCF) | +2.3% | A neutral model that fades growth from 8% to 2.5% |
The low P/E and the strong checklist scores describe a company earning very large profits right now. The DCF cannot see a cycle, because it fades growth smoothly, so a small margin of safety here says the price is close to what a steady business with these cash flows would be worth. If margins are at a peak, that is the part to test. See what growth does a share price imply for how to turn a price into an assumption.
What would have to be true for the growth to continue?
| Growth continues if | Growth stalls if |
|---|---|
| AI data-center spending keeps rising and HBM stays scarce into 2027 and 2028 | Customers cut orders or spread them across more suppliers |
| New factories open on schedule but demand absorbs the capacity | Supply from Micron and rivals arrives faster than demand |
| Long-term agreements hold prices near today's levels | Contract prices reset lower in a downturn |
| Mobile and PC demand recovers | Phones and PCs stay weak while data centers slow |
None of these is a prediction. They are the questions to watch in each quarterly report, and Micron's next results will show which column is closer.
Sources
- Micron fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool, September 30, 2026): revenue, cash flow, guidance, contracts, supply plans
- Micron fiscal Q4 2026 results (Nasdaq press release): revenue, EPS and gross margin as reported
- Micron Technology on this site: price, ratios, filters and DCF, October 23, 2026
Some call figures come from a published transcript, so check Micron's filings for exact amounts. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Micron stock FAQ
Will Micron stock keep going up?
Nobody can say. Revenue is rising fast and demand is largely contracted for fiscal 2027, but the stock is already 29% below its 52-week high, and memory prices and profits have always turned when supply catches up.
Why did Micron's revenue grow so much?
AI data centers need large amounts of memory, especially high-bandwidth memory, while supply has been tight. Revenue was $54.23 billion in the latest quarter, up 379% on the year.
What is HBM and why does it matter?
HBM is high-bandwidth memory, stacked DRAM that sits next to AI processors. It sells at much higher prices than standard memory, and Micron says it has raised HBM prices significantly for 2027.
Is Micron a cyclical stock?
Yes. Memory is a commodity-like business in which prices and profits swing with supply. Micron's own managers say they cannot see when supply and demand will balance.
Is MU cheap on this site's checks?
It trades at 11.6 times trailing earnings and 6.5 times forward earnings, and passes 5 of 8 filters. Earnings are at a peak, so the low ratios carry the risk that they fall.